Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.9% vs 57.0%). Look for Barkov on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Barkov wins 55.5% vs right-shot opponents — Carter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 56.4% vs Carter 56.4% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Barkov leads 18-11 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
Barkov 55.2%
Defensive zone
Carter 75.1%
Neutral zone
Carter 60.8%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 59.8%
40.2%
59.8%
Barkov
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
11
(29 meetings)
18
11
Barkov
Carter
Last 10: Barkov 4-6 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
5
4
Barkov
Carter
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
6
2
Barkov
Carter
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barkov
7
5
Barkov
Carter
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (870)
57.9% (885)
-0.9%
Power Play
63.8% (210)
61.7% (133)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (172)
45.4% (119)
+2.9%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Barkov is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (533).
Barkov shoots left. Carter is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (780).
Home / Away
Barkov
Carter
Home
59.2% (557)
58.2% (543)
Away
55.1% (695)
55.9% (594)
By Period
Barkov
Carter
P1
56.7%
57.5%
P2
54.8%
57.1%
P3
59.7%
55.8%
OT
55.6%
68.2%
Final 5 min
59.4%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
56.9%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
57.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2022 | 3 | 19:59 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 3 | 19:01 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 2 | 06:01 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 1 | 18:51 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 11, 2021 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 11, 2021 | 2 | 19:44 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 11, 2021 | 2 | 08:46 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 11, 2021 | 1 | 17:47 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 11, 2021 | 1 | 17:40 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 11, 2021 | 1 | 14:46 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 14, 2021 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 3 | 18:23 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 3 | 15:50 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 3 | 15:33 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 3 | 13:29 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 3 | 07:18 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 2 | 17:35 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 2 | 11:59 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 2 | 11:45 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |