Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Barkov wins 59.0% vs right-shot opponents — Carter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 56.7% vs Carter 60.1% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Carter leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Barkov 85.2%
Defensive zone
Carter 62.2%
Neutral zone
Barkov 63.4%
Result
Aleksander Barkov favored at 64.0%
64.0%
36.0%
Barkov
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Barkov
Carter
Last 10: Barkov 3-7 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
2
3
Barkov
Carter
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
1
3
Barkov
Carter
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Barkov
Carter
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
56.9% (740)
65.6% (262)
-8.7%
Power Play
63.3% (256)
68.3% (63)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (104)
50.5% (99)
-5.3%
On even strength, Carter has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Barkov is 59.0% vs right-shot opponents (481).
Barkov shoots left. Carter is 63.9% vs left-shot opponents (335).
Home / Away
Barkov
Carter
Home
57.4% (540)
64.3% (207)
Away
57.1% (560)
60.8% (217)
By Period
Barkov
Carter
P1
57.6%
65.3%
P2
56.6%
60.1%
P3
56.9%
63.8%
OT
72.2%
40.0%
Final 5 min
57.3%
65.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
57.3%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
62.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2024 | 2 | 18:38 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 14, 2024 | 2 | 17:47 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Feb 14, 2024 | 2 | 06:45 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 14, 2024 | 2 | 02:31 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Feb 14, 2024 | 2 | 02:22 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 14, 2024 | 1 | 17:14 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 14, 2024 | 1 | 06:04 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 26, 2024 | 2 | 17:12 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 26, 2024 | 1 | 05:52 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Dec 8, 2023 | 2 | 14:55 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 8, 2023 | 2 | 00:50 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |