Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Barkov on neutral-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Barkov wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 56.0% vs Zacha 52.8% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Barkov leads 11-5 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Barkov 80.3%
Defensive zone
Barkov 57.3%
Neutral zone
Barkov 54.3%
Result
Aleksander Barkov favored at 63.2%
63.2%
36.8%
Barkov
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
5
(16 meetings)
11
5
Barkov
Zacha
Last 10: Barkov 6-4 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
3
2
Barkov
Zacha
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Barkov
Zacha
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barkov
6
1
Barkov
Zacha
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (704)
54.1% (534)
+1.4%
Power Play
62.3% (247)
56.0% (109)
+6.3%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (75)
44.8% (96)
+1.9%
On power play, Barkov has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Barkov is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Barkov shoots left. Zacha is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (433).
Home / Away
Barkov
Zacha
Home
56.4% (550)
53.4% (406)
Away
56.7% (476)
52.9% (333)
By Period
Barkov
Zacha
P1
56.5%
56.8%
P2
55.5%
53.6%
P3
57.9%
49.2%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
58.7%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
56.5%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 19:56 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 16:53 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 04:36 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 12:28 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 19:41 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 19:05 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 18:55 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 13:52 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 11:40 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 17:05 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 11:07 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 09:46 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 3 | 18:15 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |