Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Gagner on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Barkov wins 55.5% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 56.4% vs Gagner 47.5% (+10.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gagner 57.1%
Defensive zone
Gagner 81.8%
Neutral zone
Gagner 72.1%
Result
Sam Gagner favored at 60.2%
39.8%
60.2%
Barkov
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Barkov
Gagner
Last 8: Barkov 2-6 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
2
5
Barkov
Gagner
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
0
1
Barkov
Gagner
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (870)
51.3% (158)
+5.7%
Power Play
63.8% (210)
66.7% (36)
-2.9%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (172)
33.6% (110)
+14.7%
On penalty kill, Barkov has a +14.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Barkov is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (533).
Barkov shoots left. Gagner is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (240).
Home / Away
Barkov
Gagner
Home
59.2% (557)
53.2% (154)
Away
55.1% (695)
40.0% (150)
By Period
Barkov
Gagner
P1
56.7%
35.6%
P2
54.8%
52.7%
P3
59.7%
51.9%
OT
55.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
59.4%
34.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
56.9%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
46.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2022 | 1 | 17:33 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Apr 17, 2022 | 3 | 12:22 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 1 | 10:09 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 29, 2021 | 3 | 08:00 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Oct 29, 2021 | 2 | 16:23 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Oct 29, 2021 | 1 | 19:19 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Oct 29, 2021 | 1 | 19:12 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Oct 29, 2021 | 1 | 16:44 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |