Scouting Report
Mitch Marner holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Killorn wins 38.1% vs right-shot opponents — Marner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Killorn 40.2% vs Marner 43.1% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Killorn 58.0%
Defensive zone
Marner 61.2%
Neutral zone
Killorn 51.1%
Result
Mitch Marner favored at 61.2%
38.8%
61.2%
Killorn
Marner
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Killorn
Marner
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Killorn
Marner
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Killorn
Marner
Edge
Even Strength
38.5% (480)
42.2% (462)
-3.7%
Power Play
50.6% (87)
55.6% (18)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
25.3% (75)
35.4% (65)
-10.1%
On penalty kill, Marner has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marner shoots right. Killorn is 38.1% vs right-shot opponents (270).
Killorn shoots left. Marner is 40.1% vs left-shot opponents (372).
Home / Away
Killorn
Marner
Home
38.9% (303)
38.2% (293)
Away
38.3% (339)
46.0% (252)
By Period
Killorn
Marner
P1
35.3%
39.1%
P2
42.8%
41.1%
P3
37.8%
47.1%
OT
27.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
41.4%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Killorn
28.0%▼
33.5%
38.6%
Marner
48.0%▲
40.0%
41.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 02:13 | Defensive | Alex Killorn |
| Oct 25, 2016 | 1 | 15:50 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |