Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +11.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Laferriere wins 39.3% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Laferriere 43.2% vs Larkin 52.4% (-11.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Laferriere 64.4%
Defensive zone
Laferriere 62.8%
Neutral zone
Laferriere 63.6%
Result
Alex Laferriere favored at 63.8%
63.8%
36.2%
Laferriere
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Laferriere
Larkin
Last 8: Laferriere 3-5 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
3
Laferriere
Larkin
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Laferriere
Larkin
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Laferriere
Larkin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Laferriere
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (322)
51.7% (878)
-9.8%
Power Play
52.9% (17)
58.5% (246)
-5.6%
Penalty Kill
37.1% (70)
48.2% (166)
-11.1%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Laferriere is 39.3% vs left-shot opponents (295).
Laferriere shoots right. Larkin is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (451).
Home / Away
Laferriere
Larkin
Home
40.3% (201)
52.4% (647)
Away
42.8% (208)
52.7% (643)
By Period
Laferriere
Larkin
P1
33.1%
52.2%
P2
40.0%
53.1%
P3
48.2%
51.7%
OT
100.0%
61.3%
Final 5 min
41.2%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Laferriere
44.0%▲
40.0%
41.6%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 07:29 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 18:21 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 12:10 | Defensive | Alex Laferriere |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 03:45 | Offensive | Alex Laferriere |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 19:44 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 02:47 | Neutral | Alex Laferriere |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 00:22 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |