Scouting Report
Alex Turcotte holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Turcotte wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Turcotte 53.3% vs Duchene 51.6% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 58.0%
Defensive zone
Duchene 50.6%
Neutral zone
Turcotte 51.4%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Turcotte
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Turcotte
Duchene
Last 5: Turcotte 2-3 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Turcotte
Duchene
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
2
Turcotte
Duchene
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Turcotte
2
0
Turcotte
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Turcotte
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (461)
51.2% (324)
+2.4%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
60.4% (53)
+9.6%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
16.7% (6)
+83.3%
On penalty kill, Turcotte has a +83.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Turcotte is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (302).
Turcotte shoots left. Duchene is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (242).
Home / Away
Turcotte
Duchene
Home
53.2% (263)
51.6% (182)
Away
55.0% (209)
52.2% (201)
By Period
Turcotte
Duchene
P1
57.2%
49.6%
P2
59.6%
56.2%
P3
44.1%
48.6%
Final 5 min
52.6%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Turcotte
40.0%▼
53.0%
54.0%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 15:46 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 15:38 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 12:52 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2 | 15:29 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 1 | 15:43 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |