Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Turcotte 51.3% vs Duchene 54.1% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Turcotte 55.0%
Defensive zone
Turcotte 54.9%
Neutral zone
Turcotte 54.7%
Result
Alex Turcotte favored at 54.9%
54.9%
45.1%
Turcotte
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Turcotte
Duchene
Last 5: Turcotte 2-3 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Turcotte
Duchene
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
2
Turcotte
Duchene
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Turcotte
2
0
Turcotte
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Turcotte
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (656)
53.9% (10,396)
-2.8%
Power Play
61.9% (21)
56.9% (1,665)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
49.1% (468)
+50.9%
On penalty kill, Turcotte has a +50.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Turcotte is 52.3% vs left-shot opponents (442).
Turcotte shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Home / Away
Turcotte
Duchene
Home
51.7% (346)
55.6% (6,411)
Away
51.2% (332)
52.7% (6,142)
By Period
Turcotte
Duchene
P1
53.8%
54.5%
P2
53.8%
54.5%
P3
46.5%
53.4%
Final 5 min
47.6%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Turcotte
40.0%▼
53.0%
51.5%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 15:46 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 15:38 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 12:52 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2 | 15:29 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 1 | 15:43 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |