Alex Turcotte vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Alex Turcotte holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Turcotte wins 54.5% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Turcotte 53.3% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 62.1%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 54.6%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 57.8%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 58.1%
41.9%
58.1%
Turcotte
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Turcotte
MacKinnon
Last 7: Turcotte 2-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Turcotte
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
2
Turcotte
MacKinnon
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
2
Turcotte
MacKinnon
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Turcotte
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (461)
50.0% (992)
+3.6%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
64.9% (148)
+5.1%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
34.4% (32)
+65.6%
On penalty kill, Turcotte has a +65.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Turcotte is 54.5% vs right-shot opponents (167).
Turcotte shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Turcotte
MacKinnon
Home
53.2% (263)
53.3% (591)
Away
55.0% (209)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Turcotte
MacKinnon
P1
57.2%
49.9%
P2
59.6%
53.2%
P3
44.1%
50.8%
Final 5 min
52.6%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Turcotte
40.0%▼
53.0%
54.0%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 11:27 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 18:23 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 11:20 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 11:04 | Offensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 01:24 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 05:15 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |