Alex Turcotte vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Alex Turcotte holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Turcotte 51.3% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 58.4%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 56.6%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 63.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 60.0%
40.0%
60.0%
Turcotte
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Turcotte
MacKinnon
Last 7: Turcotte 2-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Turcotte
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
2
Turcotte
MacKinnon
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
2
Turcotte
MacKinnon
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Turcotte
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (656)
46.1% (11,218)
+5.0%
Power Play
61.9% (21)
53.3% (1,412)
+8.6%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
42.8% (502)
+57.2%
On penalty kill, Turcotte has a +57.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Turcotte is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (233).
Turcotte shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (9,490).
Home / Away
Turcotte
MacKinnon
Home
51.7% (346)
49.7% (6,444)
Away
51.2% (332)
44.0% (6,689)
By Period
Turcotte
MacKinnon
P1
53.8%
47.4%
P2
53.8%
46.6%
P3
46.5%
46.1%
Final 5 min
47.6%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Turcotte
40.0%▼
53.0%
51.5%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 11:27 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 18:23 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 11:20 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 11:04 | Offensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 01:24 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 05:15 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |