Scouting Report
Alex Turcotte holds a +10.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Turcotte 51.3% vs Kelly 41.8% (+10.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Turcotte 78.9%
Defensive zone
Kelly 75.9%
Neutral zone
Kelly 54.8%
Result
Alex Turcotte favored at 58.4%
58.4%
41.6%
Turcotte
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Turcotte
Kelly
Last 7: Turcotte 3-4 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Turcotte
Kelly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
0
2
Turcotte
Kelly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Turcotte
1
0
Turcotte
Kelly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Turcotte
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (656)
41.9% (756)
+9.2%
Power Play
61.9% (21)
0.0% (3)
+61.9%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
37.2% (172)
+62.8%
On penalty kill, Turcotte has a +62.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Turcotte is 52.3% vs left-shot opponents (442).
Turcotte shoots left. Kelly is 41.5% vs left-shot opponents (626).
Home / Away
Turcotte
Kelly
Home
51.7% (346)
42.5% (475)
Away
51.2% (332)
39.3% (456)
By Period
Turcotte
Kelly
P1
53.8%
42.4%
P2
53.8%
44.7%
P3
46.5%
35.7%
Final 5 min
47.6%
35.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Turcotte
40.0%▼
53.0%
51.5%
Kelly
46.0%▲
38.0%
40.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 15:40 | Offensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 15:24 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 11:50 | Offensive | Parker Kelly |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 11:43 | Offensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 08:40 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 2 | 18:05 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 2 | 02:27 | Offensive | Parker Kelly |