Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.0% vs 54.5%). Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Turcotte wins 54.5% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Turcotte 53.3% vs Carrick 53.8% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Turcotte 80.3%
Defensive zone
Carrick 64.3%
Neutral zone
Turcotte 56.6%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 57.3%
42.7%
57.3%
Turcotte
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Turcotte
Carrick
Last 6: Turcotte 2-4 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
3
Turcotte
Carrick
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Turcotte
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Turcotte
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (461)
55.1% (439)
-1.5%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
66.7% (3)
+3.3%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
49.1% (53)
+50.9%
On penalty kill, Turcotte has a +50.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Turcotte is 54.5% vs right-shot opponents (167).
Turcotte shoots left. Carrick is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (355).
Home / Away
Turcotte
Carrick
Home
53.2% (263)
58.2% (225)
Away
55.0% (209)
51.5% (270)
By Period
Turcotte
Carrick
P1
57.2%
56.7%
P2
59.6%
52.8%
P3
44.1%
54.4%
Final 5 min
52.6%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Turcotte
40.0%▼
53.0%
54.0%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 18:35 | Defensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 15:06 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 12:21 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 09:00 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 08:57 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 05:19 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |