Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.5% vs 52.2%). Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Turcotte 51.3% vs Carrick 52.1% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Turcotte 82.8%
Defensive zone
Carrick 68.3%
Neutral zone
Turcotte 58.7%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 59.3%
40.7%
59.3%
Turcotte
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Turcotte
Carrick
Last 6: Turcotte 2-4 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
3
Turcotte
Carrick
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Turcotte
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Turcotte
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (656)
52.1% (2,513)
-1.0%
Power Play
61.9% (21)
61.3% (75)
+0.6%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
50.7% (430)
+49.3%
On penalty kill, Turcotte has a +49.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Turcotte is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (233).
Turcotte shoots left. Carrick is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,179).
Home / Away
Turcotte
Carrick
Home
51.7% (346)
51.2% (1,441)
Away
51.2% (332)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Turcotte
Carrick
P1
53.8%
51.8%
P2
53.8%
52.2%
P3
46.5%
52.4%
Final 5 min
47.6%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Turcotte
40.0%▼
53.0%
51.5%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 18:35 | Defensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 15:06 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 12:21 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 09:00 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 08:57 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 05:19 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |