Scouting Report
Josh Bailey holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for True on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). True wins 43.0% vs left-shot opponents — Bailey shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
True 45.9% vs Bailey 45.5% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
True leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Bailey 55.0%
Defensive zone
True 51.0%
Neutral zone
True 52.5%
Result
Josh Bailey favored at 50.2%
49.8%
50.2%
True
Bailey
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
4
(12 meetings)
8
4
True
Bailey
Last 10: True 8-2 Bailey
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: True
3
1
True
Bailey
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bailey
0
2
True
Bailey
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: True
5
1
True
Bailey
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
True
Bailey
Edge
Even Strength
44.9% (138)
45.8% (1,991)
-0.9%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
48.1% (295)
-48.1%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (4)
39.9% (281)
-39.9%
On power play, Bailey has a +48.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bailey shoots left. True is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (107).
True shoots left. Bailey is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,590).
Home / Away
True
Bailey
Home
46.4% (69)
46.6% (1,353)
Away
40.0% (75)
44.0% (1,232)
By Period
True
Bailey
P1
48.1%
46.5%
P2
40.4%
44.8%
P3
40.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
48.0%
43.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
True
42.0%▬
43.1%
43.1%
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
45.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2020 | 3 | 18:13 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 3 | 05:14 | Offensive | Alexander True |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 2 | 17:46 | Offensive | Alexander True |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 2 | 17:38 | Neutral | Alexander True |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 2 | 08:11 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 2 | 05:02 | Neutral | Alexander True |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 2 | 01:10 | Neutral | Alexander True |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 1 | 10:44 | Neutral | Alexander True |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 1 | 10:36 | Neutral | Alexander True |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 1 | 07:23 | Offensive | Alexander True |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 1 | 06:49 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 1 | 04:29 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |