Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +18.0% FO% edge overall. Cogliano wins 36.9% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cogliano 39.5% vs Pavelski 50.9% (-18.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 79.0%
Defensive zone
Cogliano 67.8%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 55.6%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 67.3%
32.7%
67.3%
Cogliano
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Cogliano
Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Cogliano
Pavelski
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cogliano
1
0
Cogliano
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cogliano
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
35.8% (53)
51.5% (594)
-15.7%
Penalty Kill
31.8% (110)
28.6% (14)
+3.2%
On even strength, Pavelski has a +15.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Cogliano is 36.9% vs right-shot opponents (65).
Cogliano shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Home / Away
Cogliano
Pavelski
Home
40.9% (88)
53.1% (339)
Away
24.0% (75)
49.2% (356)
By Period
Cogliano
Pavelski
P1
38.2%
53.8%
P2
28.6%
47.8%
P3
34.2%
50.2%
OT
28.6%
71.4%
Final 5 min
40.6%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cogliano
30.0%▼
36.5%
33.1%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Andrew Cogliano |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 09:15 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |