Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 14 meetings). Cogliano wins 40.3% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cogliano 42.3% vs Duchene 50.4% (-8.8%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 22-9 in 31 meetings
Offensive zone
Cogliano 90.7%
Defensive zone
Cogliano 92.6%
Neutral zone
Cogliano 87.9%
Result
Andrew Cogliano favored at 90.1%
90.1%
9.9%
Cogliano
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
22
(31 meetings)
9
22
Cogliano
Duchene
Last 10: Cogliano 2-8 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
12
Cogliano
Duchene
14 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Cogliano
Duchene
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
4
7
Cogliano
Duchene
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cogliano
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
41.6% (810)
50.5% (1,070)
-8.9%
Power Play
43.9% (66)
49.3% (136)
-5.4%
Penalty Kill
40.9% (215)
50.0% (20)
-9.1%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Cogliano is 40.3% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Cogliano shoots left. Duchene is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (897).
Home / Away
Cogliano
Duchene
Home
43.7% (572)
49.8% (633)
Away
39.4% (536)
51.1% (613)
By Period
Cogliano
Duchene
P1
39.2%
51.0%
P2
37.4%
51.5%
P3
48.2%
49.1%
OT
38.9%
36.8%
Final 5 min
39.4%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cogliano
30.0%▼
36.5%
41.6%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2011 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 10, 2011 | 3 | 08:13 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 10, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 10, 2011 | 2 | 19:09 | Defensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Apr 10, 2011 | 2 | 13:15 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 10, 2011 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 10, 2011 | 1 | 03:19 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 10, 2011 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Andrew Cogliano |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 3 | 16:26 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 3 | 16:10 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 2 | 10:01 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 1 | 14:05 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 1 | 12:37 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 1 | 09:17 | Neutral | Andrew Cogliano |
| Feb 23, 2011 | 3 | 06:24 | Neutral | Andrew Cogliano |
| Feb 23, 2011 | 3 | 01:06 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 23, 2011 | 2 | 16:32 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 23, 2011 | 2 | 13:02 | Offensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Feb 23, 2011 | 1 | 12:55 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 23, 2011 | 1 | 09:01 | Defensive | Andrew Cogliano |