Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +23.4% FO% edge overall. Cogliano wins 30.6% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cogliano 39.5% vs Duchene 55.6% (-23.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 72.9%
Defensive zone
Cogliano 71.9%
Neutral zone
Cogliano 51.0%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 72.9%
27.1%
72.9%
Cogliano
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Cogliano
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Cogliano
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cogliano
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
35.8% (53)
56.5% (566)
-20.7%
Penalty Kill
31.8% (110)
22.2% (9)
+9.6%
On even strength, Duchene has a +20.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Cogliano is 30.6% vs left-shot opponents (98).
Cogliano shoots left. Duchene is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (386).
Home / Away
Cogliano
Duchene
Home
40.9% (88)
56.6% (318)
Away
24.0% (75)
56.4% (319)
By Period
Cogliano
Duchene
P1
38.2%
57.2%
P2
28.6%
55.1%
P3
34.2%
55.6%
OT
28.6%
81.3%
Final 5 min
40.6%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cogliano
30.0%▼
36.5%
33.1%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 08:30 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |