Scouting Report
Anthony Cirelli holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 52.5% vs Stepan 47.5% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 74.5%
Defensive zone
Stepan 67.9%
Neutral zone
Stepan 68.0%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 71.9%
28.1%
71.9%
Cirelli
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Cirelli
Stepan
Last 5: Cirelli 1-4 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
0
3
Cirelli
Stepan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Cirelli
Stepan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (748)
46.8% (991)
+6.0%
Power Play
59.4% (32)
48.8% (211)
+10.6%
Penalty Kill
51.5% (171)
48.3% (174)
+3.2%
On power play, Cirelli has a +10.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Cirelli is 49.6% vs right-shot opponents (369).
Cirelli shoots left. Stepan is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (958).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Stepan
Home
54.5% (466)
48.6% (666)
Away
51.1% (485)
46.1% (710)
By Period
Cirelli
Stepan
P1
48.6%
46.3%
P2
54.8%
50.7%
P3
55.8%
45.5%
OT
41.2%
39.1%
Final 5 min
55.4%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
52.8%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2018 | 3 | 19:52 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 27, 2018 | 2 | 00:16 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 27, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 27, 2018 | 1 | 14:53 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 27, 2018 | 1 | 01:19 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |