Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Cirelli on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 46.9% vs Stepan 54.8% (-9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 55.8%
Defensive zone
Stepan 80.1%
Neutral zone
Stepan 69.6%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 61.9%
38.1%
61.9%
Cirelli
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Cirelli
Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
3
0
Cirelli
Stepan
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
0
1
Cirelli
Stepan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (737)
54.5% (374)
-8.1%
Power Play
57.6% (99)
0.0% (2)
+57.6%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (112)
64.7% (68)
-27.2%
On power play, Cirelli has a +57.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Cirelli is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (385).
Cirelli shoots left. Stepan is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (324).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Stepan
Home
46.7% (478)
54.5% (222)
Away
46.4% (470)
57.2% (222)
By Period
Cirelli
Stepan
P1
46.6%
57.5%
P2
48.6%
54.7%
P3
44.3%
55.9%
Final 5 min
50.6%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
46.5%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2022 | 3 | 05:53 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 1 | 15:30 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 1 | 15:27 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 3 | 14:54 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |