Scouting Report
Anthony Cirelli holds a +12.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.1% vs Hughes 39.8% (+12.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cirelli 58.3%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 84.4%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 64.9%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 75.7%
75.7%
24.3%
Cirelli
Hughes
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Cirelli
Hughes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
1
0
Cirelli
Hughes
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cirelli
Hughes
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (613)
36.8% (266)
+13.6%
Power Play
69.9% (83)
14.3% (7)
+55.6%
Penalty Kill
36.5% (208)
33.3% (6)
+3.2%
On power play, Cirelli has a +55.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Cirelli is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Cirelli shoots left. Hughes is 33.9% vs left-shot opponents (189).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Hughes
Home
54.2% (395)
35.1% (148)
Away
45.0% (509)
37.4% (131)
By Period
Cirelli
Hughes
P1
50.8%
43.0%
P2
50.0%
28.7%
P3
46.6%
35.2%
Final 5 min
53.4%
28.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
49.0%
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
36.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 17:48 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 17:30 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 12:30 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |