Scouting Report
Anthony Cirelli holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Gagner on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Cirelli wins 45.5% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.3% vs Gagner 47.5% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Gagner leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Gagner 54.9%
Defensive zone
Gagner 54.5%
Neutral zone
Gagner 57.9%
Result
Sam Gagner favored at 55.3%
44.7%
55.3%
Cirelli
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Cirelli
Gagner
Last 10: Cirelli 3-7 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
1
2
Cirelli
Gagner
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
1
4
Cirelli
Gagner
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Cirelli
Gagner
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (372)
45.4% (119)
+4.3%
Power Play
59.5% (37)
50.0% (40)
+9.5%
Penalty Kill
37.7% (53)
42.9% (21)
-5.2%
On power play, Cirelli has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Cirelli is 45.5% vs right-shot opponents (167).
Cirelli shoots left. Gagner is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (144).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Gagner
Home
47.5% (217)
49.0% (104)
Away
50.6% (245)
42.1% (76)
By Period
Cirelli
Gagner
P1
55.0%
44.4%
P2
44.8%
44.6%
P3
46.2%
49.3%
OT
80.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.9%
58.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
49.1%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
46.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2021 | 3 | 14:06 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| May 2, 2021 | 1 | 17:50 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| May 1, 2021 | OT | 03:20 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| May 1, 2021 | 3 | 19:47 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| May 1, 2021 | 1 | 16:28 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 11, 2021 | 2 | 09:09 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 11, 2021 | 2 | 06:24 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 11, 2021 | 1 | 14:30 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Feb 5, 2021 | 3 | 09:49 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 3, 2021 | 3 | 11:20 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |