Scouting Report
Anthony Cirelli holds a +15.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Cirelli on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 50.1% vs Jarvis 40.5% (+15.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cirelli 63.6%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 95.5%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 81.3%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 86.3%
86.3%
13.7%
Cirelli
Jarvis
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Cirelli
Jarvis
Last 5: Cirelli 4-1 Jarvis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
1
0
Cirelli
Jarvis
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
2
1
Cirelli
Jarvis
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cirelli
1
0
Cirelli
Jarvis
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Jarvis
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (1,052)
32.1% (81)
+17.8%
Power Play
54.9% (82)
38.6% (57)
+16.3%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (158)
28.6% (14)
+20.1%
On penalty kill, Cirelli has a +20.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jarvis shoots right. Cirelli is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (462).
Cirelli shoots left. Jarvis is 29.6% vs left-shot opponents (115).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Jarvis
Home
46.7% (649)
40.6% (69)
Away
53.5% (643)
28.9% (83)
By Period
Cirelli
Jarvis
P1
50.1%
30.9%
P2
51.1%
30.6%
P3
48.5%
47.1%
OT
64.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
49.7%
28.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
50.1%
Jarvis
40.0%▲
38.0%
34.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 10:37 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 18:28 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 11:51 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 1 | 09:17 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 1 | 02:19 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |