Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lundell wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Tkachuk shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lundell 51.6% vs Tkachuk 56.0% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 84.9%
Defensive zone
Lundell 79.0%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 58.7%
Result
Anton Lundell favored at 56.3%
56.3%
43.7%
Lundell
Tkachuk
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Lundell
Tkachuk
Last 5: Lundell 3-2 Tkachuk
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lundell
2
0
Lundell
Tkachuk
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
2
Lundell
Tkachuk
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lundell
Tkachuk
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (786)
56.8% (139)
-4.1%
Power Play
52.6% (152)
60.6% (94)
-8.0%
Penalty Kill
47.3% (182)
100.0% (1)
-52.7%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +52.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tkachuk shoots left. Lundell is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (783).
Lundell shoots left. Tkachuk is 62.6% vs left-shot opponents (171).
Home / Away
Lundell
Tkachuk
Home
51.0% (574)
50.4% (121)
Away
52.6% (546)
67.3% (113)
By Period
Lundell
Tkachuk
P1
52.9%
57.1%
P2
55.8%
60.0%
P3
47.1%
58.3%
OT
46.2%
66.7%
Final 5 min
50.8%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lundell
46.0%▼
49.0%
51.8%
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
58.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 18:18 | Neutral | Anton Lundell |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 14:01 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 02:02 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 04:36 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 00:15 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |