Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Lundell wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lundell 50.8% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 10-1 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Lundell 75.5%
Defensive zone
Lundell 79.9%
Neutral zone
Lundell 75.8%
Result
Anton Lundell favored at 78.3%
78.3%
21.7%
Lundell
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
10
(11 meetings)
1
10
Lundell
Pavelski
Last 10: Lundell 1-9 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
2
Lundell
Pavelski
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
6
Lundell
Pavelski
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
2
Lundell
Pavelski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lundell
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (3,346)
53.6% (8,791)
-2.4%
Power Play
56.0% (336)
58.2% (2,122)
-2.2%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (478)
50.9% (1,138)
-6.1%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Lundell is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,401).
Lundell shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
Lundell
Pavelski
Home
50.8% (2,228)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
51.0% (1,932)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Lundell
Pavelski
P1
52.2%
53.5%
P2
51.1%
55.2%
P3
49.5%
53.9%
OT
48.0%
52.3%
Final 5 min
52.8%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lundell
54.0%▼
57.0%
50.9%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2024 | 3 | 16:38 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 3 | 14:38 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 3 | 10:27 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 1 | 12:16 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 2 | 04:19 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 8, 2023 | 2 | 01:56 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 04:57 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 2 | 14:05 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 2 | 06:27 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 2 | 03:18 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 1 | 10:48 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |