Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lundell 50.7% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 10-1 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Lundell 80.0%
Defensive zone
Lundell 80.9%
Neutral zone
Lundell 80.2%
Result
Anton Lundell favored at 80.6%
80.6%
19.4%
Lundell
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
10
(11 meetings)
1
10
Lundell
Pavelski
Last 10: Lundell 1-9 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
2
Lundell
Pavelski
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
6
Lundell
Pavelski
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
2
Lundell
Pavelski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lundell
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,486)
53.6% (8,791)
-2.5%
Power Play
55.6% (358)
58.2% (2,122)
-2.6%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (504)
50.9% (1,138)
-6.1%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Lundell is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,457).
Lundell shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
Lundell
Pavelski
Home
50.7% (2,304)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
50.9% (2,044)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Lundell
Pavelski
P1
52.0%
53.5%
P2
51.4%
55.2%
P3
49.0%
53.9%
OT
48.1%
52.3%
Final 5 min
52.0%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lundell
46.0%▼
49.0%
50.8%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2024 | 3 | 16:38 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 3 | 14:38 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 3 | 10:27 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 1 | 12:16 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 2 | 04:19 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 8, 2023 | 2 | 01:56 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 04:57 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 2 | 14:05 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 2 | 06:27 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 2 | 03:18 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 1 | 10:48 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |