Scouting Report
Austin Czarnik holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Czarnik on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Czarnik wins 45.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hughes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Czarnik 46.0% vs Hughes 36.6% (+9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Czarnik 62.0%
Defensive zone
Czarnik 90.4%
Neutral zone
Czarnik 86.6%
Result
Austin Czarnik favored at 76.7%
76.7%
23.3%
Czarnik
Hughes
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Czarnik
Hughes
Last 5: Czarnik 4-1 Hughes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Czarnik
Hughes
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Czarnik
3
0
Czarnik
Hughes
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Czarnik
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (605)
36.0% (2,887)
+9.8%
Power Play
42.2% (45)
38.8% (224)
+3.4%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (16)
31.0% (42)
+6.5%
On even strength, Czarnik has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Czarnik is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (478).
Czarnik shoots right. Hughes is 38.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,222).
Home / Away
Czarnik
Hughes
Home
45.1% (335)
36.8% (1,670)
Away
45.6% (331)
35.4% (1,483)
By Period
Czarnik
Hughes
P1
47.8%
36.9%
P2
47.4%
33.6%
P3
40.6%
38.1%
OT
0.0%
37.5%
Final 5 min
43.1%
34.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Czarnik
46.0%▼
48.0%
45.3%
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
36.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2021 | 3 | 17:29 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 14, 2021 | 3 | 14:44 | Neutral | Austin Czarnik |
| Mar 14, 2021 | 3 | 14:39 | Neutral | Austin Czarnik |
| Mar 14, 2021 | 1 | 13:27 | Offensive | Austin Czarnik |
| Mar 14, 2021 | 1 | 04:18 | Neutral | Austin Czarnik |