Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Czarnik wins 42.6% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Czarnik 45.8% vs Evans 51.7% (-8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Czarnik 74.0%
Defensive zone
Evans 59.0%
Neutral zone
Czarnik 54.2%
Result
Austin Czarnik favored at 62.1%
62.1%
37.9%
Czarnik
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Czarnik
Evans
Last 5: Czarnik 2-3 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Czarnik
Evans
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
1
2
Czarnik
Evans
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Czarnik
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
43.6% (156)
54.5% (483)
-10.9%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
58.3% (12)
-58.3%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (3)
43.9% (155)
-10.6%
On power play, Evans has a +58.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Czarnik is 42.6% vs right-shot opponents (47).
Czarnik shoots right. Evans is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (155).
Home / Away
Czarnik
Evans
Home
46.1% (76)
49.4% (336)
Away
40.5% (84)
54.8% (314)
By Period
Czarnik
Evans
P1
44.2%
55.8%
P2
41.2%
51.7%
P3
44.6%
48.2%
OT
0.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
37.1%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Czarnik
46.0%▼
48.0%
43.1%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2023 | 3 | 19:14 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 3 | 14:33 | Offensive | Austin Czarnik |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 1 | 11:08 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 1 | 11:00 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 1 | 04:55 | Neutral | Austin Czarnik |