Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Czarnik on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Czarnik wins 45.2% vs right-shot opponents — Carter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Czarnik 46.0% vs Carter 53.2% (-7.9%)
H2H factor
Czarnik leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Carter 67.9%
Defensive zone
Carter 84.3%
Neutral zone
Carter 71.8%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 72.8%
27.2%
72.8%
Czarnik
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
6
(14 meetings)
8
6
Czarnik
Carter
Last 10: Czarnik 6-4 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Czarnik
Carter
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
1
2
Czarnik
Carter
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Czarnik
4
1
Czarnik
Carter
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Czarnik
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (605)
53.3% (8,728)
-7.5%
Power Play
42.2% (45)
57.3% (1,554)
-15.1%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (16)
46.3% (1,087)
-8.8%
On power play, Carter has a +15.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Czarnik is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (188).
Czarnik shoots right. Carter is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,429).
Home / Away
Czarnik
Carter
Home
45.1% (335)
54.7% (5,752)
Away
45.6% (331)
51.6% (5,632)
By Period
Czarnik
Carter
P1
47.8%
53.6%
P2
47.4%
52.8%
P3
40.6%
53.1%
OT
0.0%
56.5%
Final 5 min
43.1%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Czarnik
46.0%▼
48.0%
45.3%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 02:09 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 01:58 | Neutral | Austin Czarnik |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 15:54 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 15:48 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 01:37 | Neutral | Austin Czarnik |
| Mar 17, 2024 | 1 | 15:39 | Neutral | Austin Czarnik |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 13:00 | Neutral | Austin Czarnik |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 03:33 | Offensive | Austin Czarnik |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 02:14 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 14:42 | Defensive | Austin Czarnik |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 04:38 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 01:57 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 30, 2018 | 2 | 16:02 | Offensive | Austin Czarnik |
| Nov 10, 2018 | 1 | 04:46 | Offensive | Austin Czarnik |