Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +13.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Czarnik on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Czarnik wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Carter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Czarnik 49.3% vs Carter 60.1% (-13.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Czarnik 61.4%
Defensive zone
Carter 69.3%
Neutral zone
Carter 53.6%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 51.2%
48.8%
51.2%
Czarnik
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Czarnik
Carter
Last 6: Czarnik 3-3 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
0
2
Czarnik
Carter
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
0
1
Czarnik
Carter
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Czarnik
3
0
Czarnik
Carter
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Czarnik
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
48.2% (199)
65.6% (262)
-17.4%
Power Play
80.0% (5)
68.3% (63)
+11.7%
On even strength, Carter has a +17.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Czarnik is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (54).
Czarnik shoots right. Carter is 57.3% vs right-shot opponents (89).
Home / Away
Czarnik
Carter
Home
48.6% (105)
64.3% (207)
Away
49.5% (99)
60.8% (217)
By Period
Czarnik
Carter
P1
53.6%
65.3%
P2
47.1%
60.1%
P3
46.2%
63.8%
Final 5 min
49.1%
65.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Czarnik
46.0%▼
48.0%
49.0%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
62.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 02:09 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 01:58 | Neutral | Austin Czarnik |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 15:54 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 15:48 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 01:37 | Neutral | Austin Czarnik |
| Mar 17, 2024 | 1 | 15:39 | Neutral | Austin Czarnik |