Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Czarnik on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Czarnik wins 45.4% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Czarnik 46.0% vs Eller 50.5% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Eller leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Czarnik 72.2%
Defensive zone
Eller 69.5%
Neutral zone
Czarnik 50.5%
Result
Austin Czarnik favored at 53.2%
53.2%
46.8%
Czarnik
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Czarnik
Eller
Last 10: Czarnik 5-5 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Czarnik
4
0
Czarnik
Eller
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
0
3
Czarnik
Eller
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
1
2
Czarnik
Eller
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Czarnik
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (605)
51.1% (10,296)
-5.3%
Power Play
42.2% (45)
52.8% (621)
-10.6%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (16)
46.7% (1,751)
-9.2%
On power play, Eller has a +10.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Czarnik is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (478).
Czarnik shoots right. Eller is 49.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,573).
Home / Away
Czarnik
Eller
Home
45.1% (335)
51.4% (6,118)
Away
45.6% (331)
49.7% (6,578)
By Period
Czarnik
Eller
P1
47.8%
51.2%
P2
47.4%
50.1%
P3
40.6%
50.2%
OT
0.0%
56.7%
Final 5 min
43.1%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Czarnik
46.0%▼
48.0%
45.3%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2023 | 3 | 19:00 | Offensive | Austin Czarnik |
| Oct 18, 2023 | 3 | 18:49 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Oct 18, 2023 | 2 | 14:07 | Offensive | Austin Czarnik |
| Oct 18, 2023 | 2 | 02:28 | Offensive | Austin Czarnik |
| Oct 18, 2023 | 1 | 09:14 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 3 | 13:16 | Offensive | Austin Czarnik |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 02:07 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 22, 2019 | 1 | 11:10 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 27, 2018 | 3 | 15:44 | Neutral | Austin Czarnik |
| Nov 4, 2017 | 2 | 18:22 | Defensive | Lars Eller |