Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Czarnik on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Czarnik 49.3% vs Eller 52.0% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Czarnik 62.7%
Defensive zone
Eller 82.7%
Neutral zone
Eller 59.0%
Result
Austin Czarnik favored at 54.0%
54.0%
46.0%
Czarnik
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Czarnik
Eller
Last 5: Czarnik 3-2 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Czarnik
3
0
Czarnik
Eller
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
0
2
Czarnik
Eller
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Czarnik
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
48.2% (199)
52.8% (742)
-4.6%
Power Play
80.0% (5)
67.6% (34)
+12.4%
On power play, Czarnik has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Czarnik is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (150).
Czarnik shoots right. Eller is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (333).
Home / Away
Czarnik
Eller
Home
48.6% (105)
54.5% (448)
Away
49.5% (99)
50.2% (484)
By Period
Czarnik
Eller
P1
53.6%
52.8%
P2
47.1%
50.9%
P3
46.2%
53.4%
Final 5 min
49.1%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Czarnik
46.0%▼
48.0%
49.0%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2023 | 3 | 19:00 | Offensive | Austin Czarnik |
| Oct 18, 2023 | 3 | 18:49 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Oct 18, 2023 | 2 | 14:07 | Offensive | Austin Czarnik |
| Oct 18, 2023 | 2 | 02:28 | Offensive | Austin Czarnik |
| Oct 18, 2023 | 1 | 09:14 | Neutral | Lars Eller |