Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.3% vs 45.9%). Czarnik wins 45.2% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Czarnik 46.0% vs Gagner 46.0% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gagner 56.3%
Defensive zone
Czarnik 59.9%
Neutral zone
Czarnik 58.5%
Result
Austin Czarnik favored at 52.9%
52.9%
47.1%
Czarnik
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Czarnik
Gagner
Last 5: Czarnik 1-4 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Czarnik
Gagner
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
0
1
Czarnik
Gagner
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gagner
0
2
Czarnik
Gagner
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Czarnik
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (605)
45.4% (4,699)
+0.4%
Power Play
42.2% (45)
51.5% (928)
-9.3%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (16)
35.0% (226)
+2.5%
On power play, Gagner has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Czarnik is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (188).
Czarnik shoots right. Gagner is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,684).
Home / Away
Czarnik
Gagner
Home
45.1% (335)
48.7% (3,025)
Away
45.6% (331)
43.0% (2,843)
By Period
Czarnik
Gagner
P1
47.8%
44.6%
P2
47.4%
46.1%
P3
40.6%
47.3%
OT
0.0%
42.0%
Final 5 min
43.1%
45.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Czarnik
46.0%▼
48.0%
45.3%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2016 | 2 | 12:00 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Oct 13, 2016 | 2 | 06:12 | Offensive | Austin Czarnik |
| Oct 13, 2016 | 2 | 02:36 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Oct 13, 2016 | 1 | 06:51 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Oct 13, 2016 | 1 | 01:13 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |