Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +28.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Watson wins 25.0% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Watson 45.5% vs Stastny 54.0% (-28.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stastny 69.6%
Defensive zone
Watson 73.4%
Neutral zone
Watson 51.4%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 52.4%
47.6%
52.4%
Watson
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Watson
Stastny
Last 5: Watson 2-3 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
3
Watson
Stastny
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Watson
2
0
Watson
Stastny
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Watson
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
40.0% (10)
52.5% (432)
-12.5%
Penalty Kill
15.4% (13)
66.7% (6)
-51.3%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +51.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Watson is 25.0% vs left-shot opponents (20).
Watson shoots right. Stastny is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (196).
Home / Away
Watson
Stastny
Home
18.2% (11)
58.3% (307)
Away
33.3% (12)
50.9% (285)
By Period
Watson
Stastny
P1
0.0%
57.4%
P2
36.4%
51.7%
P3
40.0%
54.5%
Final 5 min
0.0%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Watson
38.0%▼
44.5%
26.1%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2021 | 3 | 14:11 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 23, 2021 | 3 | 10:27 | Defensive | Austin Watson |
| Jan 23, 2021 | 1 | 12:28 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 21, 2021 | 2 | 14:22 | Defensive | Austin Watson |
| Jan 19, 2021 | 1 | 07:09 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |