Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.2% vs 55.9%). Look for Stepan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 57.4% vs right-shot opponents — Stepan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 55.8% vs Stepan 54.8% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 65.8%
Defensive zone
Stepan 70.9%
Neutral zone
Stepan 50.2%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 55.2%
44.8%
55.2%
Matthews
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Matthews
Stepan
Last 6: Matthews 3-3 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Stepan
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
0
3
Matthews
Stepan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Stepan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,167)
54.5% (374)
+1.8%
Power Play
57.5% (40)
0.0% (2)
+57.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (22)
64.7% (68)
-14.7%
On power play, Matthews has a +57.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Matthews is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (474).
Matthews shoots left. Stepan is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (324).
Home / Away
Matthews
Stepan
Home
60.7% (572)
54.5% (222)
Away
52.4% (657)
57.2% (222)
By Period
Matthews
Stepan
P1
60.3%
57.5%
P2
55.6%
54.7%
P3
53.3%
55.9%
Final 5 min
54.5%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.2%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2022 | 2 | 19:37 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 3 | 11:59 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 3 | 02:59 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 2 | 09:17 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 2 | 01:31 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 1 | 19:51 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |