Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 52.2% vs Stepan 53.4% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 66.1%
Defensive zone
Stepan 69.0%
Neutral zone
Matthews 55.2%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 57.3%
57.3%
42.7%
Matthews
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Matthews
Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
0
Matthews
Stepan
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
0
1
Matthews
Stepan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (1,015)
55.3% (358)
-2.6%
Power Play
34.6% (26)
0.0% (3)
+34.6%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (8)
50.8% (61)
+24.2%
On power play, Matthews has a +34.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Matthews is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (388).
Matthews shoots left. Stepan is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (314).
Home / Away
Matthews
Stepan
Home
54.8% (515)
57.7% (213)
Away
50.2% (534)
50.7% (209)
By Period
Matthews
Stepan
P1
54.4%
56.3%
P2
50.4%
48.9%
P3
51.8%
57.1%
Final 5 min
53.7%
57.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
52.4%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2023 | 3 | 16:00 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 17, 2023 | 3 | 02:49 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 17, 2023 | 2 | 07:19 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 2 | 03:08 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |