Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 12 meetings). Matthews wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs Staal 50.6% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 15-15 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 50.9%
Defensive zone
Staal 51.9%
Neutral zone
Staal 51.0%
Result
Eric Staal favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Matthews
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
15
(30 meetings)
15
15
Matthews
Staal
Last 10: Matthews 6-4 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
5
2
Matthews
Staal
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
3
9
Matthews
Staal
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
7
4
Matthews
Staal
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
50.5% (10,347)
+3.5%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
53.5% (2,023)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
44.2% (781)
+5.6%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Matthews is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (6,605).
Matthews shoots left. Staal is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (8,336).
Home / Away
Matthews
Staal
Home
56.3% (5,065)
52.6% (6,558)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
48.6% (6,664)
By Period
Matthews
Staal
P1
55.5%
50.0%
P2
53.3%
51.1%
P3
52.8%
50.4%
OT
56.6%
55.2%
Final 5 min
54.1%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
Staal
44.0%▼
47.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2023 | 3 | 02:13 | Defensive | Eric Staal |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 2 | 04:55 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 29, 2023 | 3 | 03:18 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 29, 2023 | 2 | 13:48 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 29, 2023 | 2 | 08:02 | Neutral | Eric Staal |
| Mar 29, 2023 | 1 | 19:34 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 29, 2023 | 1 | 01:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 3 | 03:23 | Defensive | Eric Staal |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 1 | 15:22 | Defensive | Eric Staal |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 1 | 15:10 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 1 | 02:38 | Neutral | Eric Staal |
| May 8, 2021 | 3 | 02:19 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| May 8, 2021 | 2 | 13:52 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| May 8, 2021 | 1 | 15:51 | Defensive | Eric Staal |
| May 8, 2021 | 1 | 02:23 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| May 8, 2021 | 1 | 02:17 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| May 6, 2021 | 2 | 08:15 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| May 6, 2021 | 1 | 11:56 | Defensive | Eric Staal |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 04:25 | Offensive | Eric Staal |
| Apr 12, 2021 | 3 | 17:35 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |