Auston Matthews vs Jonathan Marchessault
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +26.4% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 65.5% vs right-shot opponents — Marchessault shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Marchessault 45.9% (+26.4%)
Offensive zone
Marchessault 58.2%
Defensive zone
Matthews 70.1%
Neutral zone
Marchessault 55.7%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 52.1%
52.1%
47.9%
Matthews
Marchessault
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Marchessault
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
30.0% (30)
+29.8%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
66.7% (3)
-1.8%
On even strength, Matthews has a +29.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marchessault shoots right. Matthews is 65.5% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Matthews shoots left. Marchessault is 37.5% vs left-shot opponents (24).
Home / Away
Matthews
Marchessault
Home
60.0% (520)
33.3% (21)
Away
59.3% (452)
33.3% (12)
By Period
Matthews
Marchessault
P1
60.2%
45.5%
P2
58.2%
25.0%
P3
60.4%
22.2%
OT
70.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
14.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Marchessault
32.0%▬
32.0%
33.3%