Auston Matthews vs Kirill Marchenko
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +16.8% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 65.5% vs right-shot opponents — Marchenko shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Marchenko 49.5% (+16.8%)
Offensive zone
Marchenko 59.3%
Defensive zone
Matthews 61.0%
Neutral zone
Marchenko 56.9%
Result
Kirill Marchenko favored at 51.8%
48.2%
51.8%
Matthews
Marchenko
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Marchenko
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
42.9% (7)
+16.9%
On even strength, Matthews has a +16.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marchenko shoots right. Matthews is 65.5% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Matthews shoots left. Marchenko is 33.3% vs left-shot opponents (6).
Home / Away
Matthews
Marchenko
Home
60.0% (520)
40.0% (5)
Away
59.3% (452)
50.0% (2)
By Period
Matthews
Marchenko
P1
60.2%
33.3%
P2
58.2%
33.3%
P3
60.4%
100.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
0.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Marchenko
34.0%▼
35.7%
42.9%