Auston Matthews vs Macklin Celebrini
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +10.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Celebrini on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Celebrini shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Celebrini 48.9% (+10.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Celebrini 68.2%
Defensive zone
Matthews 55.3%
Neutral zone
Celebrini 61.3%
Result
Macklin Celebrini favored at 57.2%
42.8%
57.2%
Matthews
Celebrini
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Matthews
Celebrini
Last 7: Matthews 3-4 Celebrini
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Celebrini
1
2
Matthews
Celebrini
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
1
Matthews
Celebrini
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Celebrini
0
1
Matthews
Celebrini
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Celebrini
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
48.2% (924)
+11.6%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
52.8% (108)
+12.1%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
56.0% (25)
+0.3%
On power play, Matthews has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Celebrini shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Celebrini is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (733).
Home / Away
Matthews
Celebrini
Home
60.0% (520)
47.8% (523)
Away
59.3% (452)
49.8% (534)
By Period
Matthews
Celebrini
P1
60.2%
47.8%
P2
58.2%
47.4%
P3
60.4%
51.1%
OT
70.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
57.6%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Celebrini
48.0%▲
46.0%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 19:26 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 01:18 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 19:45 | Neutral | Macklin Celebrini |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 16:07 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 13:14 | Defensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 10:37 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 00:31 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |