Auston Matthews vs Macklin Celebrini

2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

Auston Matthews holds a +10.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Celebrini on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Celebrini shoots left.

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) Matthews 58.8% vs Celebrini 48.9% (+10.9%)
H2H factor Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone Celebrini 68.2%
Defensive zone Matthews 55.3%
Neutral zone Celebrini 61.3%
Result Macklin Celebrini favored at 57.2%
42.8%
57.2%
Matthews Celebrini
Head-to-Head Record
3 - 4 (7 meetings)
3
4
Matthews Celebrini
Last 7: Matthews 3-4 Celebrini

Zone Breakdown

Offensive Zone
Edge: Celebrini
1
2
Matthews Celebrini
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
1
Matthews Celebrini
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Celebrini
0
1
Matthews Celebrini
1 total

Situation Matchup

Situation
Matthews
Celebrini
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
48.2% (924)
+11.6%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
52.8% (108)
+12.1%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
56.0% (25)
+0.3%
On power play, Matthews has a +12.1% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
Celebrini shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Celebrini is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (733).
Home / Away
Matthews
Celebrini
Home
60.0% (520)
47.8% (523)
Away
59.3% (452)
49.8% (534)
By Period
Matthews
Celebrini
P1
60.2%
47.8%
P2
58.2%
47.4%
P3
60.4%
51.1%
OT
70.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
57.6%
45.2%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%
64.0%
59.7%
Celebrini
48.0%
46.0%
48.8%

Recent Faceoffs

Date Period Time Zone Winner
Dec 11, 2025 2 19:26 Offensive Macklin Celebrini
Dec 11, 2025 2 01:18 Defensive Auston Matthews
Dec 11, 2025 1 19:45 Neutral Macklin Celebrini
Dec 11, 2025 1 16:07 Defensive Auston Matthews
Dec 11, 2025 1 13:14 Defensive Macklin Celebrini
Dec 11, 2025 1 10:37 Offensive Auston Matthews
Dec 11, 2025 1 00:31 Offensive Macklin Celebrini