Auston Matthews vs Macklin Celebrini
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on defensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Matthews wins 57.7% vs left-shot opponents — Celebrini shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Celebrini 48.4% (+8.6%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 11-4 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 78.8%
Defensive zone
Matthews 96.8%
Neutral zone
Matthews 94.5%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 93.7%
93.7%
6.3%
Matthews
Celebrini
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
4
(15 meetings)
11
4
Matthews
Celebrini
Last 10: Matthews 7-3 Celebrini
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Celebrini
0
2
Matthews
Celebrini
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
7
1
Matthews
Celebrini
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
4
1
Matthews
Celebrini
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Celebrini
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
47.2% (901)
+11.1%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
54.7% (139)
+1.0%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
54.5% (11)
-3.8%
On even strength, Matthews has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Celebrini shoots left. Matthews is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Matthews shoots left. Celebrini is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (711).
Home / Away
Matthews
Celebrini
Home
59.1% (528)
47.6% (553)
Away
55.1% (695)
49.0% (498)
By Period
Matthews
Celebrini
P1
56.2%
46.6%
P2
58.1%
46.4%
P3
56.4%
51.8%
OT
50.0%
41.7%
Final 5 min
55.5%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Celebrini
48.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2025 | OT | 04:25 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 27, 2025 | OT | 01:12 | Defensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 18:36 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 09:23 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 04:46 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 1 | 06:14 | Neutral | Macklin Celebrini |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 3 | 18:02 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 3 | 10:41 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 3 | 08:51 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 3 | 08:43 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 3 | 08:36 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 3 | 03:51 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 1 | 03:16 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |