Auston Matthews vs Mavrik Bourque
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +10.5% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Bourque shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Bourque 47.1% (+10.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 56.1%
Defensive zone
Bourque 58.8%
Neutral zone
Bourque 56.2%
Result
Mavrik Bourque favored at 54.5%
45.5%
54.5%
Matthews
Bourque
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Matthews
Bourque
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Bourque
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Bourque
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bourque
0
1
Matthews
Bourque
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Bourque
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
46.7% (321)
+11.6%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
33.3% (6)
+22.4%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
42.9% (21)
+7.8%
On power play, Matthews has a +22.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bourque shoots right. Matthews is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (420).
Matthews shoots left. Bourque is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (269).
Home / Away
Matthews
Bourque
Home
59.1% (528)
51.0% (157)
Away
55.1% (695)
42.4% (191)
By Period
Matthews
Bourque
P1
56.2%
44.2%
P2
58.1%
44.7%
P3
56.4%
49.6%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
55.5%
59.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Bourque
50.0%▲
46.0%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 15:27 | Neutral | Mavrik Bourque |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 09:50 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 09:43 | Defensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 3 | 09:08 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |