Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Goodrow on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Goodrow wins 45.0% vs right-shot opponents — Stepan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Goodrow 46.5% vs Stepan 53.4% (-8.4%)
H2H factor
Goodrow leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 76.1%
Defensive zone
Stepan 66.4%
Neutral zone
Stepan 70.6%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 72.9%
27.1%
72.9%
Goodrow
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Goodrow
Stepan
Last 10: Goodrow 6-4 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Goodrow
Stepan
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Goodrow
Stepan
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Goodrow
3
0
Goodrow
Stepan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Goodrow
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
46.8% (472)
55.3% (358)
-8.5%
Power Play
40.0% (25)
0.0% (3)
+40.0%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (96)
50.8% (61)
-8.1%
On power play, Goodrow has a +40.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Goodrow is 45.0% vs right-shot opponents (260).
Goodrow shoots left. Stepan is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (314).
Home / Away
Goodrow
Stepan
Home
44.3% (314)
57.7% (213)
Away
47.7% (279)
50.7% (209)
By Period
Goodrow
Stepan
P1
46.8%
56.3%
P2
44.0%
48.9%
P3
47.1%
57.1%
Final 5 min
43.2%
57.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Goodrow
52.0%▲
39.5%
45.9%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2023 | 3 | 08:34 | Neutral | Barclay Goodrow |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 2 | 10:43 | Offensive | Barclay Goodrow |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 2 | 06:53 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 2 | 06:45 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 1 | 08:57 | Neutral | Barclay Goodrow |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 1 | 02:01 | Defensive | Barclay Goodrow |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 3 | 06:07 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 2 | 12:40 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 1 | 17:00 | Neutral | Barclay Goodrow |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 1 | 16:56 | Offensive | Barclay Goodrow |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 1 | 11:21 | Offensive | Barclay Goodrow |