Scouting Report
Barrett Hayton holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 51.1% vs Stepan 46.6% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Stepan leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 61.2%
Defensive zone
Stepan 65.3%
Neutral zone
Stepan 65.8%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 63.7%
36.3%
63.7%
Hayton
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Hayton
Stepan
Last 10: Hayton 3-7 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Hayton
Stepan
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
4
Hayton
Stepan
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
0
1
Hayton
Stepan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (3,479)
46.5% (10,204)
+4.3%
Power Play
56.7% (594)
48.8% (1,593)
+7.9%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (374)
44.2% (1,368)
+1.0%
On power play, Hayton has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Hayton is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (1,648).
Hayton shoots left. Stepan is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,190).
Home / Away
Hayton
Stepan
Home
52.9% (2,268)
47.6% (6,608)
Away
49.4% (2,179)
45.5% (6,573)
By Period
Hayton
Stepan
P1
52.0%
47.5%
P2
51.4%
45.6%
P3
49.9%
46.8%
OT
58.1%
40.7%
Final 5 min
51.6%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
51.2%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2023 | 3 | 13:56 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 3 | 13:49 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 3 | 18:27 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 3 | 08:12 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 03:20 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Apr 18, 2022 | 3 | 11:03 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 18, 2022 | 2 | 10:59 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Apr 18, 2022 | 2 | 05:08 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 31, 2021 | 2 | 12:01 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 31, 2021 | 1 | 11:43 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |