Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 51.0% vs Stepan 53.4% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayton 61.9%
Defensive zone
Hayton 61.8%
Neutral zone
Hayton 63.0%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 62.1%
62.1%
37.9%
Hayton
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Hayton
Stepan
Last 5: Hayton 1-4 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
0
1
Hayton
Stepan
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
2
Hayton
Stepan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
0
1
Hayton
Stepan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (937)
55.3% (358)
-4.3%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
0.0% (3)
+56.1%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (129)
50.8% (61)
-5.8%
On power play, Hayton has a +56.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Hayton is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (485).
Hayton shoots left. Stepan is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (314).
Home / Away
Hayton
Stepan
Home
54.6% (639)
57.7% (213)
Away
47.2% (591)
50.7% (209)
By Period
Hayton
Stepan
P1
50.9%
56.3%
P2
52.7%
48.9%
P3
49.9%
57.1%
Final 5 min
51.6%
57.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
51.1%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2023 | 3 | 13:56 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 3 | 13:49 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 3 | 18:27 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 3 | 08:12 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 03:20 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |