Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayton on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayton wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Stepan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 48.3% vs Stepan 54.8% (-7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayton 60.7%
Defensive zone
Hayton 59.3%
Neutral zone
Hayton 62.9%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 60.2%
60.2%
39.8%
Hayton
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Hayton
Stepan
Last 5: Hayton 2-3 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
2
1
Hayton
Stepan
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
0
2
Hayton
Stepan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (643)
54.5% (374)
-6.4%
Power Play
55.6% (90)
0.0% (2)
+55.6%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (129)
64.7% (68)
-21.3%
On power play, Hayton has a +55.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Hayton is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (322).
Hayton shoots left. Stepan is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (324).
Home / Away
Hayton
Stepan
Home
48.8% (424)
54.5% (222)
Away
47.5% (438)
57.2% (222)
By Period
Hayton
Stepan
P1
52.9%
57.5%
P2
47.3%
54.7%
P3
44.1%
55.9%
Final 5 min
44.9%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
48.1%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2022 | 3 | 11:03 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 18, 2022 | 2 | 10:59 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Apr 18, 2022 | 2 | 05:08 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 31, 2021 | 2 | 12:01 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 31, 2021 | 1 | 11:43 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |