Scouting Report
Barrett Hayton holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Rodrigues on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 52.4% vs Rodrigues 47.3% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 69.7%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 65.5%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 65.4%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 66.1%
33.9%
66.1%
Hayton
Rodrigues
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Hayton
Rodrigues
Last 6: Hayton 1-5 Rodrigues
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
1
0
Hayton
Rodrigues
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
0
2
Hayton
Rodrigues
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
0
3
Hayton
Rodrigues
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Rodrigues
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (646)
47.9% (637)
+4.6%
Power Play
56.8% (111)
47.9% (71)
+8.9%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
37.3% (67)
-0.5%
On power play, Hayton has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rodrigues shoots right. Hayton is 48.7% vs right-shot opponents (302).
Hayton shoots left. Rodrigues is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (574).
Home / Away
Hayton
Rodrigues
Home
56.9% (432)
48.3% (429)
Away
47.4% (344)
45.4% (346)
By Period
Hayton
Rodrigues
P1
53.1%
48.3%
P2
50.3%
46.9%
P3
55.4%
45.6%
OT
25.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
59.5%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 13:48 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 19:29 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 01:30 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 13:11 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 13:05 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 2 | 14:37 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |