Scouting Report
Barrett Hayton holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Nazar on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayton wins 57.7% vs right-shot opponents — Nazar shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 53.8% vs Nazar 45.7% (+9.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nazar 59.0%
Defensive zone
Nazar 63.0%
Neutral zone
Nazar 58.9%
Result
Frank Nazar favored at 60.8%
39.2%
60.8%
Hayton
Nazar
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Hayton
Nazar
Last 9: Hayton 3-6 Nazar
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hayton
Nazar
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Hayton
Nazar
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nazar
0
3
Hayton
Nazar
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Nazar
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (817)
45.2% (314)
+7.4%
Power Play
63.3% (139)
39.5% (38)
+23.8%
Penalty Kill
53.1% (64)
44.8% (29)
+8.3%
On power play, Hayton has a +23.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nazar shoots right. Hayton is 57.7% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Hayton shoots left. Nazar is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (284).
Home / Away
Hayton
Nazar
Home
53.9% (516)
43.4% (196)
Away
54.4% (504)
45.9% (185)
By Period
Hayton
Nazar
P1
55.1%
47.3%
P2
55.0%
40.3%
P3
51.7%
46.7%
OT
69.2%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.8%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
54.1%
Nazar
36.0%▼
48.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2025 | 3 | 11:18 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 2 | 14:55 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 2 | 08:31 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 2 | 08:21 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 3 | 07:59 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 18:06 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 08:18 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 16:00 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 12:00 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |