Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 15 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 51.1% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 17-10 in 27 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayton 70.3%
Defensive zone
Hayton 74.4%
Neutral zone
Hayton 73.3%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 71.8%
71.8%
28.2%
Hayton
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
17
(27 meetings)
10
17
Hayton
Pavelski
Last 10: Hayton 3-7 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
11
Hayton
Pavelski
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
3
2
Hayton
Pavelski
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
4
Hayton
Pavelski
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (3,316)
53.6% (8,791)
-2.8%
Power Play
57.1% (553)
58.2% (2,122)
-1.1%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (369)
50.9% (1,138)
-5.6%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Hayton is 49.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,581).
Hayton shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
Hayton
Pavelski
Home
52.7% (2,137)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
49.5% (2,101)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Hayton
Pavelski
P1
51.9%
53.5%
P2
51.3%
55.2%
P3
49.9%
53.9%
OT
61.0%
52.3%
Final 5 min
51.2%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
58.0%▼
62.0%
51.1%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2023 | 3 | 17:43 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 14, 2023 | 3 | 10:21 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 14, 2023 | 1 | 00:46 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 31, 2023 | 3 | 08:09 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 3 | 18:34 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 3 | 05:01 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 2 | 05:04 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 1 | 18:43 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 1 | 03:39 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 2 | 12:26 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 1 | 14:51 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 3 | 01:41 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 14:33 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 1 | 09:20 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Apr 27, 2022 | 3 | 19:52 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 27, 2022 | 2 | 12:25 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 27, 2022 | 1 | 13:14 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 20, 2022 | 3 | 05:17 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |