Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Hayton wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 48.3% vs Pavelski 52.2% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayton 63.7%
Defensive zone
Hayton 87.1%
Neutral zone
Hayton 72.1%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 65.2%
65.2%
34.8%
Hayton
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
8
(11 meetings)
3
8
Hayton
Pavelski
Last 10: Hayton 3-7 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
7
Hayton
Pavelski
9 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Hayton
Pavelski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (643)
52.5% (570)
-4.4%
Power Play
55.6% (90)
54.5% (145)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (129)
44.4% (36)
-1.0%
On even strength, Pavelski has a +4.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Hayton is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (322).
Hayton shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Home / Away
Hayton
Pavelski
Home
48.8% (424)
55.0% (391)
Away
47.5% (438)
49.7% (360)
By Period
Hayton
Pavelski
P1
52.9%
50.8%
P2
47.3%
55.0%
P3
44.1%
52.0%
OT
70.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
44.9%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
48.1%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2022 | 3 | 19:52 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 27, 2022 | 2 | 12:25 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 27, 2022 | 1 | 13:14 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 20, 2022 | 3 | 05:17 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 20, 2022 | 2 | 13:49 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 6, 2021 | 3 | 13:17 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 6, 2021 | 3 | 09:01 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 6, 2021 | 2 | 09:43 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 6, 2021 | 1 | 03:06 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 27, 2021 | 3 | 17:41 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 27, 2021 | 1 | 18:36 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |