Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.7% vs 53.5%). Look for Couturier on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayton wins 55.3% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 52.4% vs Couturier 53.2% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayton 71.3%
Defensive zone
Couturier 58.4%
Neutral zone
Hayton 59.5%
Result
Sean Couturier favored at 53.9%
46.1%
53.9%
Hayton
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Hayton
Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
0
3
Hayton
Couturier
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayton
1
0
Hayton
Couturier
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (646)
53.4% (758)
-0.9%
Power Play
56.8% (111)
62.9% (70)
-6.1%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
50.7% (227)
-13.9%
On penalty kill, Couturier has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Hayton is 55.3% vs left-shot opponents (474).
Hayton shoots left. Couturier is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (680).
Home / Away
Hayton
Couturier
Home
56.9% (432)
50.7% (517)
Away
47.4% (344)
56.1% (538)
By Period
Hayton
Couturier
P1
53.1%
55.2%
P2
50.3%
53.0%
P3
55.4%
53.3%
OT
25.0%
42.4%
Final 5 min
59.5%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Couturier
52.0%▬
51.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 01:30 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 02:22 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 10:28 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 01:39 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |